Thinking ahead

If we get carjacked, as long as you and I can both get out of the car, they can have it; I have insurance. But if either of us can’t get out of the car because we get hung up in the seat belts or something, turn your face away from me and close your eyes because I am going to start shooting. I don’t want his loathsome blood-borne pathogens to get in your eyes.

–my personal policy/Standard Operating Procedure, as related to a former girlfriend who lived near Murder Kroger in Atlanta

A California man shot the carjacker of his van Friday as the carjacker drove away. The carjacker died shortly thereafter and the shooter was arrested for Murder.  Once the threat of Death or Serious Bodily Injury has passed, the time for gunfire has ended.

“Nice people lock their doors.” –my mother

‘Don’t sit around in unsecure parking lots working on your czechbook, writing reports, texting, or talking on the phone.’ –paraphrased from Bill Rogers  and Craig Douglas

“Firearms shall not be discharged at a moving vehicle unless a person in the vehicle is immediately threatening the officer or another person with deadly force by means other than the vehicle. The moving vehicle itself shall not presumptively constitute a threat that justifies an officer’s use of deadly force.” —LAPD Manual Volume 1 Section 556.10 POLICY ON THE USE OF FORCE

Policies, SOPs, or whatever you wish to call them are simply committing to memory, or writing down, actions that you have thought about ahead of time. For some reason, the word ‘policy’ evokes a great deal of resistance on the part of people I talk to about it. Not thinking about things ahead of time is probably the most Serious Mistake Gunowners Make and I will have to add that to the next edition.

In a crisis, the conscious mind has an extremely short life span, probably less than a second. Once the conscious mind expires, either training/practice or the amygdala will take over. Trying to make up a plan on the spot is an extraordinarily difficult task.

Perhaps the inability or lack of desire to think ahead is the reason for the popularity of the OODA Loop. Relying on the OODA Loop implies that you can out-think the situation in the moment. This is just being lazy and an excuse for not thinking ahead. No plan survives the test of combat, as the saying goes, but it is ALWAYS easier to modify a pre-existing plan than to make one up on the spot.

Fighter pilots have been at the forefront of developing policy and procedure for ‘in the moment’ encounters. Their creations over the past century have shown increasing sophistication as they have evolved.

  • Dicta Boelcke, a list of principles, was formulated during WWI by Hauptmann Oswald Boelcke, a German fighter pilot and squadron commander. It is interesting to note that he was killed when he violated one of his own dicta, never close in on a single combatant when others are also pursuing it.
  • Lieutenant Commander Jimmy Thach recognized the superiority of Japanese fighter aircraft in the early days of WWII. To counter them, he developed, using matchsticks on a tabletop, the Thach Weave as a defensive maneuver. Then he tested the maneuver under conditions simulating the disadvantages US Navy fighters would face.
  • No Guts, No Glory, a USAF training document, was written by Major General (then Major) Frederick C. Blesse shortly after the Korea Conflict. It was an explanation of his experiences flying F-86 Sabres against MIG fighters and how to defeat them.
  • Colonel John Boyd wrote the Aerial Attack Study,  which is the most comprehensive manual on fighter combat ever written, in 1959. In it, he methodically worked out all the possible attacks and counters a fighter could make in relation to both bombers and other fighters. His study was heavily based on a thorough understanding of the flying and weapons capabilities of both US and Soviet aircraft.

In every one of these documents, specific principles, procedures, and pitfalls are worked out in advance. Speed of decision in tactical situations is achieved by picking from a list of possible options to best solve an unfolding incident rather than trying to ‘think faster,’ which is physiologically impossible. The distinction between ‘thinking faster’ and picking from a menu of possible decisions escapes many common taters about the OODA process. Boyd’s description of the process is much more involved than generally assumed and explained using a simplistic circular diagram. That circular graphic does no justice to the concepts that Colonel Boyd developed.

OODA.Boyd.svg

In order to make decisions in advance, it’s necessary to think about likely scenarios, at least, ahead of time and decide how to solve them. This includes the legal ramifications of your possible actions. Thinking ahead is a key component of avoiding becoming a victim or incurring a Negative Outcome in the criminal justice system.

no cuffs

John Johnston and I will be discussing this timely topic in more depth on Ballistic Radio tonight. Ballistic Radio is available over the Internet.

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7 responses

  1. Great thoughtful information as always. We avoid thinking though some situations because the implications can be dire. However not thinking though and having a plan can be even more catastrophic. Also it may be difficult for us to imagine that we could find ourselves in those situations. However one only needs to look at the reports, which you are excellent at by the way, to find that we could very well be in those situations at any time. Thank you.

  2. You’re exactly right. I used to teach the same ideas, albeit in a much different context. Marty Topper and I dealt with these concepts in some NTI talks, too. You’ve got more useful elaboration than I remember us presenting, though. Best of luck with all this. It’s important. On Feb 7, 2016 2:23 PM, “tacticalprofessor” wrote:

    > tacticalprofessor posted: “If we get carjacked, as long as you and I can > both get out of the car, they can have it; I have insurance. But if either > of us can’t get out of the car because we get hung up in the seat belts or > something, turn your face away from me and close your eyes ” >

  3. In Texas it’s actually legal to shoot someone trying to steal your property. I’m like you, I’ve got insurance, I’m not killing someone over property. At the same time, if I was dependent on my car to provide for my family, I don’t know if I’d feel the same way.

  4. As an update, the man in Antioch was (miraculously) not ultimately charged for this shooting, even though it was learned that he was at the CVS to buy drugs!!!

    I still can’t believe it!!

    #LuckiestManInCA

  5. […] make many decisions ahead of time, and that’s generally a good thing. What we have to be careful of is thinking like a hammer in […]

  6. […] make many decisions ahead of time, and that’s generally a good thing. What we have to be careful of is thinking like a hammer in […]

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